Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 85,151
2 South Dakota 74,919
3 Iowa 60,092
4 Wisconsin 57,474
5 Nebraska 52,523
6 Utah 48,590
7 Idaho 46,951
8 Illinois 46,289
9 Tennessee 45,790
10 Mississippi 45,326
11 Montana 45,005
12 Alabama 44,712
13 Arkansas 44,518
14 Louisiana 44,110
15 Kansas 42,802
16 Missouri 41,662
17 Rhode Island 41,461
18 Florida 41,431
19 Minnesota 40,973
20 Wyoming 40,073
21 Nevada 39,751
22 Oklahoma 39,640
23 Georgia 38,670
24 Indiana 38,518
25 South Carolina 38,187
26 Arizona 38,080
27 Texas 37,995
28 Alaska 33,173
29 New Jersey 31,894
30 Kentucky 31,845
31 New Mexico 31,215
32 North Carolina 30,064
33 Delaware 29,986
34 Colorado 29,327
35 New York 29,220
36 Michigan 28,892
37 Maryland 27,795
38 Massachusetts 27,629
39 District of Columbia 27,012
40 California 26,500
41 Connecticut 26,164
42 Ohio 26,123
43 Puerto Rico 23,994
44 Virginia 23,974
45 Pennsylvania 21,501
46 West Virginia 19,228
47 Washington 18,201
48 Oregon 13,667
49 Hawaii 11,802
50 New Hampshire 11,053
51 Maine 6,782
52 Vermont 4,820

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,873
2 South Dakota 1,488
3 Minnesota 1,399
4 Montana 1,186
5 Nebraska 1,150
6 Iowa 1,131
7 Wyoming 1,066
8 Utah 1,000
9 Indiana 999
10 Wisconsin 951
11 Alaska 904
12 Illinois 880
13 Tennessee 857
14 Kansas 848
15 Oklahoma 800
16 Missouri 796
17 Colorado 759
18 Rhode Island 753
19 Michigan 683
20 Ohio 651
21 Idaho 646
22 Nevada 553
23 New Mexico 548
24 West Virginia 524
25 Kentucky 479
26 Arkansas 445
27 Connecticut 433
28 New Jersey 416
29 Delaware 405
30 Pennsylvania 397
31 Alabama 381
32 Massachusetts 355
33 Texas 331
34 Mississippi 327
35 Maryland 323
36 Arizona 301
37 Florida 299
38 South Carolina 292
39 North Carolina 280
40 Washington 280
41 New Hampshire 269
42 California 236
43 Louisiana 220
44 New York 214
45 Oregon 214
46 Virginia 209
47 Puerto Rico 197
48 Georgia 188
49 District of Columbia 187
50 Vermont 141
51 Maine 118
52 Hawaii 46

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,866
2 New York 1,724
3 Massachusetts 1,500
4 Connecticut 1,334
5 Louisiana 1,320
6 Rhode Island 1,198
7 Mississippi 1,191
8 North Dakota 982
9 District of Columbia 935
10 Illinois 885
11 Arizona 865
12 Michigan 844
13 Georgia 823
14 Florida 817
15 South Carolina 804
16 Delaware 755
17 Arkansas 737
18 Pennsylvania 734
19 Indiana 733
20 South Dakota 727
21 Maryland 712
22 Texas 695
23 Alabama 662
24 Iowa 641
25 Nevada 623
26 New Mexico 589
27 Tennessee 568
28 Missouri 567
29 Minnesota 527
30 Montana 494
31 Ohio 491
32 Wisconsin 476
33 California 463
34 North Carolina 461
35 Colorado 452
36 Virginia 445
37 Kansas 434
38 Idaho 432
39 Nebraska 416
40 Kentucky 391
41 Oklahoma 388
42 New Hampshire 367
43 Washington 349
44 West Virginia 326
45 Puerto Rico 294
46 Wyoming 248
47 Utah 226
48 Oregon 183
49 Hawaii 156
50 Alaska 125
51 Maine 122
52 Vermont 94

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 28
2 North Dakota 15
3 Montana 14
4 Wyoming 9
5 Arkansas 8
6 Illinois 8
7 New Mexico 6
8 Iowa 5
9 Rhode Island 5
10 Michigan 4
11 Minnesota 4
12 Wisconsin 4
13 Colorado 3
14 Idaho 3
15 Indiana 3
16 Massachusetts 3
17 Oklahoma 3
18 Tennessee 3
19 West Virginia 3
20 Arizona 2
21 Connecticut 2
22 Mississippi 2
23 Nebraska 2
24 Nevada 2
25 New Jersey 2
26 North Carolina 2
27 Pennsylvania 2
28 Puerto Rico 2
29 South Carolina 2
30 Texas 2
31 Utah 2
32 Alabama 1
33 District of Columbia 1
34 Florida 1
35 Georgia 1
36 Kansas 1
37 Kentucky 1
38 Louisiana 1
39 Maryland 1
40 Missouri 1
41 New York 1
42 Ohio 1
43 Oregon 1
44 Washington 1
45 Alaska 0
46 California 0
47 Delaware 0
48 Hawaii 0
49 Maine 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 185,600 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 181,741 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 178,090 3 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 177,776 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 169,215 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 58,249 416 86
Richland South Carolina 45,630 861 72
York South Carolina 29,308 1886 39
Orange California 21,356 2389 23
Pierce Washington 16,227 2636 16

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 688 1078 65
Davidson Tennessee 558 1352 56
Orange California 481 1536 51
York South Carolina 431 1685 46
Pierce Washington 318 2021 35

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons